Tournament Preview 2019

     Tournament Eve is upon us! The road to the Final 4 for 64 hopefuls begins tomorrow. 48 hours from then our 64 team field will have been trimmed to 32 and by the end of the weekend our Sweet 16 will be established. The upsets, the superstars, the mascots, the buzzer beaters, the students, the emotions of the players, the big dance is finally here! The aim of this article is to break down each region, scope out some potential upsets (we will disregard 8's vs 9's and 7's vs 10's, identify some sleepers (low seeded teams that could exceed expectations) as well as some over-seeded teams (higher seeds who may go home early), and then provide some final thoughts on each region. 

EAST

Potential first round upsets

There are a few potential ones in here. The biggest trend is the 11 seed Belmont knocking out the 6 seed Maryland. Belmont makes nearly 60% of their 2 point field goals and draws a Maryland team that has lost 3 of it's last 4 games, 2 of which were to teams that finished near the bottom of the Big 10 Conference (Penn State and Nebraska). Belmont's offensive prowess could put the Terrapins on the ropes.

12 seed Liberty likes to hoist up a lot of 3-pointers. If they get hot it could spell trouble for mediocre 5 seed Mississippi State, who will need big performances from it's guards to offset the Flames' perimeter shooting. 

For a bolder pick, the most likely 14 to defeat a 3 would come in this region in the Yale vs LSU match up. Yale scores a lot of points and it was only 2 years ago that as a 13 seed they upset 4th seeded Baylor. LSU is dealing with off the court distractions, with head coach Will Wade unavailable due to an FBI investigation into a potential recruiting scandal. But I still think LSU has enough talent to survive this one.

Overseeded Teams

Coaching scandal aside I am still not high on LSU. They do not shoot 3's particularly well and don't grab a lot off offensive rebounds. They also rely heavily on 2 or 3 players to score the bulk of their points (Tremont Waters, Naz Reid, Javonte Smart). Even if they clear Yale, they would again have their hands full with Maryland or Belmont. 

The 7 seed Louisville also enters the tournament having lost 5 of its last 7 games. Granted many of those were against ACC powerhouses but they could continue the trend and lose to the 10 seed Minnesota. Minnesota is not that great of a team either but they did beat Purdue twice this month who finished 2nd in the Big 10 and is a 3 seed in the South. 

Sleepers

The 4 seed, Virginia Tech, is dangerous. They play great perimeter defense and also make a lot of 3's.  Nickiel Alexander-Walker is a player who could go top 10 in the NBA draft this summer and Kerry Blackshear Jr. is a big man with great size who can give teams fits in the post. The Hokies also get Justin Robinson, their point guard, back who will tremendously aid an already dangerous Virgina Tech squad.

I will again cite aforementioned Belmont, who plays great offense and has a legitimate path to the Sweet 16 if they can beat Maryland and the LSU/Yale winner. Would not pick them any further than those 2 games though.

Bottom Line:

We haven't mentioned them yet but this region is also about the Elite 8 clash between Duke and Michigan State. The Spartans are the best 2 seed in the field, and would have made the Final 4 if placed in a different region, but Duke on paper is simply the best team in the field. These 2 appear on a collision course at this point to meet in the Elite 8, with both of their first 2 rounds being absolute cakewalks. 

South

Potential first round upsets

There are reasons for optimism with the 11, 12, and 13 seeds. The 11, Saint Mary's, is coming off a win against Gonzaga (the 1 seed in the West) and can give the 6 seed Villanova fits. They shoot well, they guard the 3 point line well, they commit very few turnovers, and they get offensive rebounds. That is a lethal combination, but Villanova is no push over either. 

The 12 seed Oregon is as hot as anyone right now, having won 8 straight en route to winning the Pac-12 tournament. Teams playing their best basketball in March are good upset nominees, but the Pac-12 was also abnormally weak this year so some would argue that Oregon's late success is due to poor competition.

UC Irvine is a dangerous 13 seed pulling a vulnerable 14 seed in Kansas State, who may without one of it's best scorers and players in Dean Wade, who is questionable with an injury. The Anteaters come from a smaller conference but they boast 30 wins and haven't lost in 2 months. In fact 9 of their last 10 wins were by double digits. They also protect the rim well, as they are the nation's best defensive team against 2 point attempts. Pair this with the fact that Kansas State does not shoot 3's well and the Wildcats could be in real trouble.

Overseeded Teams

Purdue is a high risk high reward as a 3 because they rely heavily on their All-American point guard Carson Edwards. Edwards is the kind of player who could carry them all the way to the Final 4, but one cold game from such a ball-dominant player could also send Purdue home by the end of the weekend.

A 9 seed for Oklahoma is awfully generous, as they finished 8-12 in their conference (Big 12). I normally do not like teams with losing conference records to go very far (this also includes Ohio State, St. Johns, and Minnesota.

Sleepers

I like the 5, 6, and 7. 

Wisconsin is a team that normally creates chaos in March and one that wears opponents down with their slow pace and use of their big men. They have a fringe top 10 player in Ethan Happ.

Villanova won the whole thing last year and while they did lose a lot of those players to the NBA there are still pieces that remain and they appear to be peaking at the right time having won the Big East. If they beat Saint Mary's they could very well beat Purdue also and then compete with Tennessee.

Cincinatti is far better than it's 7 seed would indicate. They play smothering defense and are coming off a win against Houston (a top 10 team) in the American Athletic Conference championship game. Their first 2 games also take place in Ohio, meaning they would have a significant home crowd advantage against Tennessee in what is supposed to be a "neutral" site.

Bottom Line:

Again, I believe it comes down to the 1 seed Virginia, and the 2 seed Tennessee. Metrics would tell you to pick Virginia, who is the best defensive team in the country and super efficient offensively also. However Virginia also has a history of under performing in the tournament. Tennessee's coach, Rick Barnes, also has a history of early exits in the tournament but Tennessee's experience and depth also cannot be understated as they can hurt teams in a variety of ways. It's possible for one of the sleepers to go through but the majority of brackets will take Virginia or Tennessee. 

Mid-West

Potential first round upsets

The one I have my eye on is 13 seed Northeastern over 4 seed Kansas. This Kansas team is not as good as prior years (first year since 2006 that they aren't a 3 seed or higher) and has gone through concerning stretches during the regular season. They are also without 2 of their best players, big man Udoke Azabuike (injuruy) and explosive guard Le'Gerald Vick (left the school for personal reasons). Dedric Lawson is still a great player who can score a lot of points, but if Northeastern can limit his production, keep the pace slow, and knock down 3's, they have a realistic shot to pull the upset.

Ohio State and New Mexico State are also possibilities but ones I'm less confident in.

Overseeded teams

Aforementioned Kansas should have been a 5 or a 6. They were aided by a great strength of schedule, especially in non-conference games where they do have wins over Michigan State, Tennessee, and Villanova. But again, they had a more complete roster then

Sleepers

There are multiple.

The 5 seed Auburn. has won 8 straight games, including 2 over Tennesse. The latter victory came in the SEC championship game which Auburn won by 20. They are a fun team to watch that likes to play NASCAR paced basketball and shoot many 3's. 

The 6 seed Iowa State also sprinted through the Big 12 tournament and won the conference championship. The Cyclones are inconsistent but when they rebound and share the ball around they can beat anyone in the country.

7 seed Wofford is the true David facing all the Goliaths. A small South Carolina based school that can hang with the best of them and isn't afraid of the big boys. 

10 seed Seton Hall finished runners up in the Big East tournament after beating Marquette (5 seed in the West) and losing a close game to aforementioned Villanova. 

Bottom Line

Everyone will expect this to come down to North Carolina and Kentucky. North Carolina is playing as well as anybody in the country, having won 15 of their last 17 including two wins over Duke. Kentucky is loaded with talented recruits who will be drafted to the NBA this summer and is no stranger to big games either. If it does come down to these 2 teams it will be a fast paced game loaded with freakish athletes.

The 3 seed, Houston, is also a disciplined legitimate team. They play in a less competitive conference but have only lost 3 times all season. Auburn and Iowa State are also dangerous as they enter the tournament off of hot winning streaks and conference championships.

West

Potential first round upsets

12 seed Murray State has a superstar in guard Ja Morant. Morant can drop 30 or even 40 points on a given night and will likely go 2nd or 3rd in the NBA draft because he is just that good. He is the kind of player that can take over a game and thus the Racers could beat 5 seed Marquette. The Golden Eagles have lost 5 of their final 6 games after being a fringe top 10 team earlier in the year. Marquette has a star of their own in Markus Howard but if Murray State can slow him down and get Morant going then they can and probably will win this game. 

If 11 seed Arizona State wins their First Four game against St. John's tonight they're a team that could beat 6 seed Buffalo. However if St. John's wins then I expect them to lose to Buffalo.

Overseeded teams

There are things to dislike about the top 3 seeds.

1 seed Gonzaga is a legitimate national title contender, however they did just lose to Saint Mary's by 13 and do not come from a competitive conference (WCC), which helps inflate their record.

2 seed Michigan can beat anyone but lacks depth, typically only playing a rotation of 7 or 8 guys. Partially because they have been dealing with injuries.

3 seed Texas Tech defends every bit as well as Virginia, and also has a star in Jarrett Culver. But the otherwise stagnant offense makes them susceptible to losing to lesser opponents, especially if Culver has an off night. 

Sleepers

Not just throwing them out there because I am biased but Florida State has all the tools. They've won 14 of their last 16, they defend, they're extremely athletic, they are well balanced and deep (10 or 11 man rotation), they have 5 experienced seniors, they do well in close games. To play devil's advocate they are not always great offensively and lack a star player in crunch time situations to give the ball to.  

Nevada is a dangerous 7, who made the Sweet 16 last season and retained almost all of their players. They were ranked in the top 10 in the preseason and were a trendy final 4 pick in preseason predictions. Still, they are inconsistent at times and thus difficult to trust.

Buffalo is a 6 capable of beating Texas Tech and potentially Michigan also. The Bulls defeated 4 seed Arizona last year as a 13 seed and it was no fluke. They won 30 games but come from a weaker conference (MAC). 

8 seed Syracuse is known for creating chaos in March. They have a hall of fame coach in Jim Boeheim and play a suffocating zone defense that forces teams to beat them from the 3 point line. Gonzaga could have a very tough time with them in the round of 32. 

Lastly I will reinsert Murray State here, because if Morant goes off every game and his supporting cast can chip in 7-11 points each then all bets are off.

Bottom Line

This is the one region where I honestly have no flipping idea. Naturally, the experts like Gonzaga and some like Michigan and Texas Tech. But with so many dangerous middle seed teams throughout the region its possible for the West to get completely bat shit. It could be the big nothing, with Gonzaga, Michigan, Texas Tech, and Florida State all reaching the Sweet 16. Alternatively I will not be surprised if some combination of Nevada, Buffalo, Marquette, Syracuse, and Murray State crash the party. Your guess is as good as mine.