Bracket Tips!

     March is upon us! Which means a few different things: Spring is in the air (Sprannnggg breakkkk), taxes are due soon, St Patty's is celebrated, and of course many of us associate basketball with the month as well. If you're new to March Madness or just looking for some tips to get a leg up on your friends, co-workers, or even family, then you've come to the right place. This post will format like a Q&A and put things in layman's terms for even the most novice of basketball followers. So naturally we will start from the beginning!

What is March Madness?

    I'm so glad you asked! March Madness refers to the men's NCAA Basketball tournament, sometimes also referred to as the "Big Dance". It is a single elimination, six round tournament where the winner is crowned as the National Champion. The tournament starts with 68 teams. 8 of them play in what's referred to as the "First Four", which are play in games to reach the round of 64. The 4 winners advance, the 4 losers are eliminated. From there, all teams participate in the round of 64, where the winners advance to the round of 32. Then the process repeats itself the rest of the way. The winners in the round of 32 advance to what's called the "Sweet 16", the winners of those games reach the "Elite 8", and the winners of those games reach the "Final Four". The winners of each Final 4 game play for (you guessed it) the national title, where our champion is crowned. 

But wait, why is it called "Madness"? Isn't it just like any other sporting tournament?

     Quite the opposite actually! With the exception of football, most other professional sporting leagues (NBA, MLB, NHL) only have a small amount of teams make the playoffs, and then have those teams play in Best of 7 series' to advance. This system lowers the probability of upsets and is tailored for the best teams to ultimately prevail.

     College basketball tosses that logic out the window! It is "single elimination" meaning each round is only 1 game. Thus a team has to win 6 consecutive games to win the tournament. Thus upsets are more likely and the best teams could be doomed by one poor performance. One loss, and you're going home. In fact a perfect bracket (correctly predicting all 63 games) has never been achieved, and the odds are 1 in 9.2 quintillion! (yes you read that correctly). For reference, the odds of winning the PowerBall are 1 in 300 million. 

     For this reason March Madness is an annual national phenomenon for sports fanatics. The unpredictability, buzzer beaters, Cinderellas (a team that goes much farther than expected, typically a smaller school), and upsets make it the most exhilarating tournament in all of sports. It captivates office pools everywhere and makes people flush to the sports bars and casinos. It's a beloved american high-stakes sports tradition that makes people go bonkers, rooting for Cinderella stories and cheering on our alma maters from the edge of our seats, but we do it together and that is the beauty of it. 

Okay so can you explain the format of the bracket? And what are seeds?

     Absolutely! So let's disregard the "First 4" and focus on the 64. These are divided into 4 mini brackets of 16, where the power houses are equally distributed and sent to different georgraphical regions: East, South, Midwest, and West. "Seeds" are essentially the way the committee ranks these teams, best to worst in descending order. For example the best team in the region is a 1 seed, the next best is a 2 seed, and the worst is a 16 seed. 

The structure of the first round is 1 seeds playing 16 seeds, 2 seeds playing 15 seeds, and so on all the way to 8's vs 9's. The winner of each pairing advances, and as aforementioned this process continues until eventually all teams are weeded out and 2 play for the national title. 

Right, so I'm beginning to understand. How should I appropriately pick first round games. 

     Ok so let's start with some basics. You should never pick 16's to beat 1's. Prior to last year, it had never happened in the history of the tournament. Last year history was made when UMBC defeated Virginia, but still that is only one occurrence in 136 attempts. 

     Almost equally unlikely is 15's beating 2's. That has only happened 8 times.

     3's and 4's are typically safe bets, but it wouldn't be surprising to see 1 or 2 of them trip up in a given year.

     AT LEAST ONE 12 ALMOST ALWAYS DEFEATS A 5!!!. In 29 of the past 34 years, at least one 12 seed has won a first round game. 

     EVEN MORE COMMON IS 11'S DEFEATING 6'S. In the past 9 years, 11's have won 56% of these match ups, including 8 of the last 12 games. I.e. you should target them for 1 or 2 wins over 6's.

     7's vs 10's and 8's vs 9's are essentially toss ups, as those teams are of close to equal skill levels. 

Got it, what about for my Sweet 16?

     Don't get cute, rely on the 1's. In 31 of the past 34 years, at least three of the four 1 seeds have reached the Sweet Sixteen. These are the best teams after all. 

     From there it gets trickier. Only 12.5% of the time do the 1, 2, 3, and 4 all reach the sweet 16. So you'll want a sneaky upset or two in most of your regions. 

     Here's the trickiest part. In 32 of the past 34 years a double digit seed (10 through 16) has reached the Sweet 16. These are our "Cinderellas". Identifying the correct Cinderella is extremely difficult, but doing so could give you a huge edge in winning your bracket challenge. More often than not, they'll get blown out by one of the heavyweights, BUT if not they might just create enough chaos to bust brackets across the nation. Would recommend an 11 or 12. 

Okay...and Final 4 tips? And eventual champion?

     You want between one and three of the 1 seeds. Only once has the Final 4 included all four 1 seeds, but it's equally rare that none of them would reach that point.

     From there...good luck. 2's and 3's are your next best bets. And it recent years 7's have gotten trendy with 3 Final 4 appearances since 2014. 

     Of the past 20 champions, 14 have been 1 seeds, 2 have been 2 seeds, 3 have been 3 seeds, and in 2014, the 7 seed Uconn Huskies (Mom and Dad's alma-mater!!) won the whole thing. 

So who would you say are the major contenders this year?

     There are probably 7 or 8 that have a more realistic shot than the rest. Currently North Carolina is the hottest team right now, having won 15 of their last 16 games in a super competitive ACC conference. Right with them is conference rival Virginia, who boats a record of 29-2 and prides themselves on playing smothering defense. A perennial trendy pick is Duke, who always lands the best players (get to know Zion Williamson) and is coached by a basketball mastermind (Coach K). Kentucky is another blue-blood program that always lands the nation's best recruits and thus competes for national titles. Michigan State historically makes deep runs in March, so does west coast powerhouse Gonzaga. Experts are high on Tennessee this year as well. 

Perfect, I think I'm ready to give it a go. Any last words of advice?

     Have fun. You're supposed to make mistakes and get things wrong. If you correctly predict the Final 4, how amazing! Do pat yourself on the back! If your Elite 8 is completely busted by the end of round 2, that's alright. We've all been there, and odds are the same thing happened to millions of Americans. It's about the journey in the tourney. We watch, we cheer, we talk trash to our friends, we get adrenaline rushes, sometimes we leap with joy, sometimes our hearts are broken. But it's a heck of a ride and one that wasn't meant to enjoy alone.

Best of luck, young bracketologists! I hope this new found knowledge serves you well!

About the Author

     Ryan Quigley is a BOOOSSSSSSSS who wears money suits and loves margaritas.