Tournament Preview 2019

     Tournament Eve is upon us! The road to the Final 4 for 64 hopefuls begins tomorrow. 48 hours from then our 64 team field will have been trimmed to 32 and by the end of the weekend our Sweet 16 will be established. The upsets, the superstars, the mascots, the buzzer beaters, the students, the emotions of the players, the big dance is finally here! The aim of this article is to break down each region, scope out some potential upsets (we will disregard 8's vs 9's and 7's vs 10's, identify some sleepers (low seeded teams that could exceed expectations) as well as some over-seeded teams (higher seeds who may go home early), and then provide some final thoughts on each region. 

EAST

Potential first round upsets

There are a few potential ones in here. The biggest trend is the 11 seed Belmont knocking out the 6 seed Maryland. Belmont makes nearly 60% of their 2 point field goals and draws a Maryland team that has lost 3 of it's last 4 games, 2 of which were to teams that finished near the bottom of the Big 10 Conference (Penn State and Nebraska). Belmont's offensive prowess could put the Terrapins on the ropes.

12 seed Liberty likes to hoist up a lot of 3-pointers. If they get hot it could spell trouble for mediocre 5 seed Mississippi State, who will need big performances from it's guards to offset the Flames' perimeter shooting. 

For a bolder pick, the most likely 14 to defeat a 3 would come in this region in the Yale vs LSU match up. Yale scores a lot of points and it was only 2 years ago that as a 13 seed they upset 4th seeded Baylor. LSU is dealing with off the court distractions, with head coach Will Wade unavailable due to an FBI investigation into a potential recruiting scandal. But I still think LSU has enough talent to survive this one.

Overseeded Teams

Coaching scandal aside I am still not high on LSU. They do not shoot 3's particularly well and don't grab a lot off offensive rebounds. They also rely heavily on 2 or 3 players to score the bulk of their points (Tremont Waters, Naz Reid, Javonte Smart). Even if they clear Yale, they would again have their hands full with Maryland or Belmont. 

The 7 seed Louisville also enters the tournament having lost 5 of its last 7 games. Granted many of those were against ACC powerhouses but they could continue the trend and lose to the 10 seed Minnesota. Minnesota is not that great of a team either but they did beat Purdue twice this month who finished 2nd in the Big 10 and is a 3 seed in the South. 

Sleepers

The 4 seed, Virginia Tech, is dangerous. They play great perimeter defense and also make a lot of 3's.  Nickiel Alexander-Walker is a player who could go top 10 in the NBA draft this summer and Kerry Blackshear Jr. is a big man with great size who can give teams fits in the post. The Hokies also get Justin Robinson, their point guard, back who will tremendously aid an already dangerous Virgina Tech squad.

I will again cite aforementioned Belmont, who plays great offense and has a legitimate path to the Sweet 16 if they can beat Maryland and the LSU/Yale winner. Would not pick them any further than those 2 games though.

Bottom Line:

We haven't mentioned them yet but this region is also about the Elite 8 clash between Duke and Michigan State. The Spartans are the best 2 seed in the field, and would have made the Final 4 if placed in a different region, but Duke on paper is simply the best team in the field. These 2 appear on a collision course at this point to meet in the Elite 8, with both of their first 2 rounds being absolute cakewalks. 

South

Potential first round upsets

There are reasons for optimism with the 11, 12, and 13 seeds. The 11, Saint Mary's, is coming off a win against Gonzaga (the 1 seed in the West) and can give the 6 seed Villanova fits. They shoot well, they guard the 3 point line well, they commit very few turnovers, and they get offensive rebounds. That is a lethal combination, but Villanova is no push over either. 

The 12 seed Oregon is as hot as anyone right now, having won 8 straight en route to winning the Pac-12 tournament. Teams playing their best basketball in March are good upset nominees, but the Pac-12 was also abnormally weak this year so some would argue that Oregon's late success is due to poor competition.

UC Irvine is a dangerous 13 seed pulling a vulnerable 14 seed in Kansas State, who may without one of it's best scorers and players in Dean Wade, who is questionable with an injury. The Anteaters come from a smaller conference but they boast 30 wins and haven't lost in 2 months. In fact 9 of their last 10 wins were by double digits. They also protect the rim well, as they are the nation's best defensive team against 2 point attempts. Pair this with the fact that Kansas State does not shoot 3's well and the Wildcats could be in real trouble.

Overseeded Teams

Purdue is a high risk high reward as a 3 because they rely heavily on their All-American point guard Carson Edwards. Edwards is the kind of player who could carry them all the way to the Final 4, but one cold game from such a ball-dominant player could also send Purdue home by the end of the weekend.

A 9 seed for Oklahoma is awfully generous, as they finished 8-12 in their conference (Big 12). I normally do not like teams with losing conference records to go very far (this also includes Ohio State, St. Johns, and Minnesota.

Sleepers

I like the 5, 6, and 7. 

Wisconsin is a team that normally creates chaos in March and one that wears opponents down with their slow pace and use of their big men. They have a fringe top 10 player in Ethan Happ.

Villanova won the whole thing last year and while they did lose a lot of those players to the NBA there are still pieces that remain and they appear to be peaking at the right time having won the Big East. If they beat Saint Mary's they could very well beat Purdue also and then compete with Tennessee.

Cincinatti is far better than it's 7 seed would indicate. They play smothering defense and are coming off a win against Houston (a top 10 team) in the American Athletic Conference championship game. Their first 2 games also take place in Ohio, meaning they would have a significant home crowd advantage against Tennessee in what is supposed to be a "neutral" site.

Bottom Line:

Again, I believe it comes down to the 1 seed Virginia, and the 2 seed Tennessee. Metrics would tell you to pick Virginia, who is the best defensive team in the country and super efficient offensively also. However Virginia also has a history of under performing in the tournament. Tennessee's coach, Rick Barnes, also has a history of early exits in the tournament but Tennessee's experience and depth also cannot be understated as they can hurt teams in a variety of ways. It's possible for one of the sleepers to go through but the majority of brackets will take Virginia or Tennessee. 

Mid-West

Potential first round upsets

The one I have my eye on is 13 seed Northeastern over 4 seed Kansas. This Kansas team is not as good as prior years (first year since 2006 that they aren't a 3 seed or higher) and has gone through concerning stretches during the regular season. They are also without 2 of their best players, big man Udoke Azabuike (injuruy) and explosive guard Le'Gerald Vick (left the school for personal reasons). Dedric Lawson is still a great player who can score a lot of points, but if Northeastern can limit his production, keep the pace slow, and knock down 3's, they have a realistic shot to pull the upset.

Ohio State and New Mexico State are also possibilities but ones I'm less confident in.

Overseeded teams

Aforementioned Kansas should have been a 5 or a 6. They were aided by a great strength of schedule, especially in non-conference games where they do have wins over Michigan State, Tennessee, and Villanova. But again, they had a more complete roster then

Sleepers

There are multiple.

The 5 seed Auburn. has won 8 straight games, including 2 over Tennesse. The latter victory came in the SEC championship game which Auburn won by 20. They are a fun team to watch that likes to play NASCAR paced basketball and shoot many 3's. 

The 6 seed Iowa State also sprinted through the Big 12 tournament and won the conference championship. The Cyclones are inconsistent but when they rebound and share the ball around they can beat anyone in the country.

7 seed Wofford is the true David facing all the Goliaths. A small South Carolina based school that can hang with the best of them and isn't afraid of the big boys. 

10 seed Seton Hall finished runners up in the Big East tournament after beating Marquette (5 seed in the West) and losing a close game to aforementioned Villanova. 

Bottom Line

Everyone will expect this to come down to North Carolina and Kentucky. North Carolina is playing as well as anybody in the country, having won 15 of their last 17 including two wins over Duke. Kentucky is loaded with talented recruits who will be drafted to the NBA this summer and is no stranger to big games either. If it does come down to these 2 teams it will be a fast paced game loaded with freakish athletes.

The 3 seed, Houston, is also a disciplined legitimate team. They play in a less competitive conference but have only lost 3 times all season. Auburn and Iowa State are also dangerous as they enter the tournament off of hot winning streaks and conference championships.

West

Potential first round upsets

12 seed Murray State has a superstar in guard Ja Morant. Morant can drop 30 or even 40 points on a given night and will likely go 2nd or 3rd in the NBA draft because he is just that good. He is the kind of player that can take over a game and thus the Racers could beat 5 seed Marquette. The Golden Eagles have lost 5 of their final 6 games after being a fringe top 10 team earlier in the year. Marquette has a star of their own in Markus Howard but if Murray State can slow him down and get Morant going then they can and probably will win this game. 

If 11 seed Arizona State wins their First Four game against St. John's tonight they're a team that could beat 6 seed Buffalo. However if St. John's wins then I expect them to lose to Buffalo.

Overseeded teams

There are things to dislike about the top 3 seeds.

1 seed Gonzaga is a legitimate national title contender, however they did just lose to Saint Mary's by 13 and do not come from a competitive conference (WCC), which helps inflate their record.

2 seed Michigan can beat anyone but lacks depth, typically only playing a rotation of 7 or 8 guys. Partially because they have been dealing with injuries.

3 seed Texas Tech defends every bit as well as Virginia, and also has a star in Jarrett Culver. But the otherwise stagnant offense makes them susceptible to losing to lesser opponents, especially if Culver has an off night. 

Sleepers

Not just throwing them out there because I am biased but Florida State has all the tools. They've won 14 of their last 16, they defend, they're extremely athletic, they are well balanced and deep (10 or 11 man rotation), they have 5 experienced seniors, they do well in close games. To play devil's advocate they are not always great offensively and lack a star player in crunch time situations to give the ball to.  

Nevada is a dangerous 7, who made the Sweet 16 last season and retained almost all of their players. They were ranked in the top 10 in the preseason and were a trendy final 4 pick in preseason predictions. Still, they are inconsistent at times and thus difficult to trust.

Buffalo is a 6 capable of beating Texas Tech and potentially Michigan also. The Bulls defeated 4 seed Arizona last year as a 13 seed and it was no fluke. They won 30 games but come from a weaker conference (MAC). 

8 seed Syracuse is known for creating chaos in March. They have a hall of fame coach in Jim Boeheim and play a suffocating zone defense that forces teams to beat them from the 3 point line. Gonzaga could have a very tough time with them in the round of 32. 

Lastly I will reinsert Murray State here, because if Morant goes off every game and his supporting cast can chip in 7-11 points each then all bets are off.

Bottom Line

This is the one region where I honestly have no flipping idea. Naturally, the experts like Gonzaga and some like Michigan and Texas Tech. But with so many dangerous middle seed teams throughout the region its possible for the West to get completely bat shit. It could be the big nothing, with Gonzaga, Michigan, Texas Tech, and Florida State all reaching the Sweet 16. Alternatively I will not be surprised if some combination of Nevada, Buffalo, Marquette, Syracuse, and Murray State crash the party. Your guess is as good as mine. 

Bracket Tips!

     March is upon us! Which means a few different things: Spring is in the air (Sprannnggg breakkkk), taxes are due soon, St Patty's is celebrated, and of course many of us associate basketball with the month as well. If you're new to March Madness or just looking for some tips to get a leg up on your friends, co-workers, or even family, then you've come to the right place. This post will format like a Q&A and put things in layman's terms for even the most novice of basketball followers. So naturally we will start from the beginning!

What is March Madness?

    I'm so glad you asked! March Madness refers to the men's NCAA Basketball tournament, sometimes also referred to as the "Big Dance". It is a single elimination, six round tournament where the winner is crowned as the National Champion. The tournament starts with 68 teams. 8 of them play in what's referred to as the "First Four", which are play in games to reach the round of 64. The 4 winners advance, the 4 losers are eliminated. From there, all teams participate in the round of 64, where the winners advance to the round of 32. Then the process repeats itself the rest of the way. The winners in the round of 32 advance to what's called the "Sweet 16", the winners of those games reach the "Elite 8", and the winners of those games reach the "Final Four". The winners of each Final 4 game play for (you guessed it) the national title, where our champion is crowned. 

But wait, why is it called "Madness"? Isn't it just like any other sporting tournament?

     Quite the opposite actually! With the exception of football, most other professional sporting leagues (NBA, MLB, NHL) only have a small amount of teams make the playoffs, and then have those teams play in Best of 7 series' to advance. This system lowers the probability of upsets and is tailored for the best teams to ultimately prevail.

     College basketball tosses that logic out the window! It is "single elimination" meaning each round is only 1 game. Thus a team has to win 6 consecutive games to win the tournament. Thus upsets are more likely and the best teams could be doomed by one poor performance. One loss, and you're going home. In fact a perfect bracket (correctly predicting all 63 games) has never been achieved, and the odds are 1 in 9.2 quintillion! (yes you read that correctly). For reference, the odds of winning the PowerBall are 1 in 300 million. 

     For this reason March Madness is an annual national phenomenon for sports fanatics. The unpredictability, buzzer beaters, Cinderellas (a team that goes much farther than expected, typically a smaller school), and upsets make it the most exhilarating tournament in all of sports. It captivates office pools everywhere and makes people flush to the sports bars and casinos. It's a beloved american high-stakes sports tradition that makes people go bonkers, rooting for Cinderella stories and cheering on our alma maters from the edge of our seats, but we do it together and that is the beauty of it. 

Okay so can you explain the format of the bracket? And what are seeds?

     Absolutely! So let's disregard the "First 4" and focus on the 64. These are divided into 4 mini brackets of 16, where the power houses are equally distributed and sent to different georgraphical regions: East, South, Midwest, and West. "Seeds" are essentially the way the committee ranks these teams, best to worst in descending order. For example the best team in the region is a 1 seed, the next best is a 2 seed, and the worst is a 16 seed. 

The structure of the first round is 1 seeds playing 16 seeds, 2 seeds playing 15 seeds, and so on all the way to 8's vs 9's. The winner of each pairing advances, and as aforementioned this process continues until eventually all teams are weeded out and 2 play for the national title. 

Right, so I'm beginning to understand. How should I appropriately pick first round games. 

     Ok so let's start with some basics. You should never pick 16's to beat 1's. Prior to last year, it had never happened in the history of the tournament. Last year history was made when UMBC defeated Virginia, but still that is only one occurrence in 136 attempts. 

     Almost equally unlikely is 15's beating 2's. That has only happened 8 times.

     3's and 4's are typically safe bets, but it wouldn't be surprising to see 1 or 2 of them trip up in a given year.

     AT LEAST ONE 12 ALMOST ALWAYS DEFEATS A 5!!!. In 29 of the past 34 years, at least one 12 seed has won a first round game. 

     EVEN MORE COMMON IS 11'S DEFEATING 6'S. In the past 9 years, 11's have won 56% of these match ups, including 8 of the last 12 games. I.e. you should target them for 1 or 2 wins over 6's.

     7's vs 10's and 8's vs 9's are essentially toss ups, as those teams are of close to equal skill levels. 

Got it, what about for my Sweet 16?

     Don't get cute, rely on the 1's. In 31 of the past 34 years, at least three of the four 1 seeds have reached the Sweet Sixteen. These are the best teams after all. 

     From there it gets trickier. Only 12.5% of the time do the 1, 2, 3, and 4 all reach the sweet 16. So you'll want a sneaky upset or two in most of your regions. 

     Here's the trickiest part. In 32 of the past 34 years a double digit seed (10 through 16) has reached the Sweet 16. These are our "Cinderellas". Identifying the correct Cinderella is extremely difficult, but doing so could give you a huge edge in winning your bracket challenge. More often than not, they'll get blown out by one of the heavyweights, BUT if not they might just create enough chaos to bust brackets across the nation. Would recommend an 11 or 12. 

Okay...and Final 4 tips? And eventual champion?

     You want between one and three of the 1 seeds. Only once has the Final 4 included all four 1 seeds, but it's equally rare that none of them would reach that point.

     From there...good luck. 2's and 3's are your next best bets. And it recent years 7's have gotten trendy with 3 Final 4 appearances since 2014. 

     Of the past 20 champions, 14 have been 1 seeds, 2 have been 2 seeds, 3 have been 3 seeds, and in 2014, the 7 seed Uconn Huskies (Mom and Dad's alma-mater!!) won the whole thing. 

So who would you say are the major contenders this year?

     There are probably 7 or 8 that have a more realistic shot than the rest. Currently North Carolina is the hottest team right now, having won 15 of their last 16 games in a super competitive ACC conference. Right with them is conference rival Virginia, who boats a record of 29-2 and prides themselves on playing smothering defense. A perennial trendy pick is Duke, who always lands the best players (get to know Zion Williamson) and is coached by a basketball mastermind (Coach K). Kentucky is another blue-blood program that always lands the nation's best recruits and thus competes for national titles. Michigan State historically makes deep runs in March, so does west coast powerhouse Gonzaga. Experts are high on Tennessee this year as well. 

Perfect, I think I'm ready to give it a go. Any last words of advice?

     Have fun. You're supposed to make mistakes and get things wrong. If you correctly predict the Final 4, how amazing! Do pat yourself on the back! If your Elite 8 is completely busted by the end of round 2, that's alright. We've all been there, and odds are the same thing happened to millions of Americans. It's about the journey in the tourney. We watch, we cheer, we talk trash to our friends, we get adrenaline rushes, sometimes we leap with joy, sometimes our hearts are broken. But it's a heck of a ride and one that wasn't meant to enjoy alone.

Best of luck, young bracketologists! I hope this new found knowledge serves you well!

About the Author

     Ryan Quigley is a BOOOSSSSSSSS who wears money suits and loves margaritas.